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Within the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.